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Why Spain is not

Yes, I know, the intro is a stereotype. But it is important to understand what kind of crisis facing each of the countries that are flirting with making the euro blown up in his spare time. Let's start with the pathologies of our companions:

1. Greece: governments that take advantage of low interest rates the ECB to borrow to the ears repeatedly. When they arrive at reasonable debt limits, financial engineering used to hide debt and still digging. When they run out of accounting tricks, begin to lie shamelessly. When they get caught lying, they lie even more creative. So until they explode in your face.
2. Ireland banking system out of control is passed three villages with the mother of all bubbles, it is nationalized, destroys public accounts. And no, the Irish welfare state has nothing to do with it - the country's public accounts were in good health before banks jumped into the air.
3. Portugal: are a less psychotic version of Greece. Portugal had a structural deficit in its accounts fairly large, but not totally uncontrolled, their accounts were more or less credible, not Science fiction comic books that had the Greeks.

What is the pathology of Spain? Just as Portugal is the light version Greece, Spain is a less catastrophic disaster Irish. Namely:

1. Our banking system was much better regulated Irish. The English banking has its problems (more later), but not far from the orgy of accounting surrealism had in Ireland. Our
2. savings (that glorious experiment in public banks) they are a considerable accounting disaster. Unlike Ireland, however, the losses of these entities are not born of advanced financial engineering and financial gimmicks foreign losses Ours are the old style: lots of foreclosures.
3. Our housing bubble was worse than the Irish - our economy was much more dependent on the construction sector, and it seems more people have been ahead. The crisis has done much more damage to the real economy in Ireland, a more flexible and diversified economy (even if acting as a tax haven).
4. Our labor market is much worse - in part because our specialization in the brick, en parte por una regulación laboral (y económica en general) realmente espantosa que favorece empleo de calidad más bien patética.
5. Nuestras cuentas públicas a largo plazo tenían peor aspecto que las irlandesas, especialmente la sanidad (muy eficiente en España, pero con costes crecientes según envejece la población) y las pensiones de jubilación. A corto plazo, autonomías y algunas ciudades (Madrid) tienen problemas fiscales graves, pero sin llegar a los niveles griegos.

Esto hace que nuestra crisis tenga dos diferencias importantes:

1. Aunque el sistema financiero tiene sus problemas y puede acabar costándonos un montón de dinero, the damage will be lower than in Ireland. The boxes are really bad, but their losses are limited to brick and a good reform (privatization-cof-cof) can reduce the problem. Banks have many questionable mortgages, but good regulation prevented excesses derived and makes them eat more capacity losses. If one explodes, the price will not be more than the GDP of the country, basically.
2. Our real economy is comparatively much worse: we are much more inflexible, our unemployment rate is much higher and our production model was the Irish carpetovetónico. The problem is not (only) that we too much money, but our economic growth is too anemic to close the hole. Build shacks kicked and not worth it's time to reform the economy from top to bottom. And yes, this includes pension and health - if we keep, we need to make changes.

The equilibiro that Spain has to do is, therefore, quite different from the Irish: financial sector reform is very important, but not as crucial as in Ireland, but revive the real economy (and take serious steps for the long-term structural deficit not eat us alive) on the basis of ambitious reforms is much more urgent. The short-term fiscal adjustment is in our case, less urgent than the long-term structural reforms - but that does not mean we do not have the fiscal discipline to take us seriously.

Now think what the government is taking over seriously ... build trust and tell me if there was or not. If we get into trouble (and if we do not take it to reform in earnest, we'll get in trouble) our rescue will be quite different - and not just too funny.

Antique Thermostat Chronotherm

Ireland Ireland

I will not write too, because here it will not read anyone. But hey, what Ireland is not really a surprise. In fact, it was almost expected. Worth review where the problem began.

1. Ireland enters the euro, greatly lowering the transaction costs of doing business with the rest of the EU.
2. Being a small and very open economy (at least to the EU), the Irish authorities decide will grow by using a very simple strategy: Luxembourg, speaking English. A kind of fiscal semiparaíso in the eurozone, but with a bit more space.
3. To be competitive with Luxembourg, the Irish decided that regulate the financial system is weak and feeble-minded, and let the banks do what they want. While
4. Meanwhile, in Frankfurt, the ECB monetary policy expansionary cheerfully clumsy thinking of French and German economies, scattering of money the system.
5. German banks (and French), given that they come kicking but forex your country has trade surplus having an obsession, they decide to pay all the money they ask their Irish colleagues. And hey, ask for much, but believe what the Celtic Tiger.

spend a few years. In mid 2008, the mechanism begins to break:

1. The freeze Lehman hit financial markets, when the entire planet simultaneously realizes God is all up to their eyeballs in debt.
2. Irish banks, which rely more money than anyone from outside the country, stay with your ass in the air: nonsense of money had asked everyone, but can not renew their loans and that no one pays money to anyone.
3. The Irish government is the problem, and concludes that the panic is making its ultra-efficient wonderful and deregulated banks can not get liquidity, so give them a nudge with public money.
4. Banks still unable to obtain liquidity, and that still can not get to renew their loans. The government provides a little more money.
5. And a little more.
6. and more.
7. and more.
8. Both, in fact, you just screwed for nationalizing banks, only to discover with horror that it costs a paste and has to cut spending elsewhere in a recession. Grit your teeth, and pulls palante .
9. Meanwhile, banks still need more money, without seeming to be endless. It was not liquidity - rather huge quantities of garbage and artifacts subprime accounting unpresentable. According to government accounts deteriorate the condition that makes you start having the same problems: no one trusts the country, so nobody wants to lend them money.
10. In early November 2010, it is clear that the hole in the banks is larger than the entire economy, and that the Irish state will never be able to save . The rescuer needs to be rescued from bankruptcy.

what parts have failed? Ireland, unlike Greece, not a victim of a political class with accounting practices unsustainable. The euro became the model for growth of the country most likely crazy, but it was the main engine. The Irish, in fact, Iceland - a banking system totally out of control that takes a country ahead.

The "contribution" of the euro to the Irish stage, however, is no less cruel than in Greece, Iceland could devalue its currency, declare bankruptcy and have everyone eat the brown. The Irish ... Well, Angela Merkel will not let them. They can not get out of its currency can not leave the sinking problem and making its currency lose value debts. Nor can they stop paying, because that would be charged half German and French banking sector, and thus political career Sarkozy and Merkel confidence in the eurozone.

Basically, we are in Citoyen commenting the other day, the euro assumed that removing monetary policy from the hands of the states, local politicians would behave well. The Irish case is a sign that trust in the intelligence and responsibility is asking too much, and always someone will have brilliant ideas, like trolls based financial system deregulation.

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